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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Tennessee Titans 4th & 6 at the 66

Tennessee Titans 0 – Houston Texans 0

What Actually Happened

(10:00) (Punt formation) 31-K.Byard pass deep right to 29-D.Cruikshank for 66 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

The Three Options

GO -1.02 EP
What Happened
  • 42% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 60, worth +2.43 EP
  • 58% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 66, worth -3.51 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (83 yards).

PUNT -0.45 EP
Model's Pick
  • Houston Texans would take over around their own 24, worth -0.45 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO Model wanted PUNT instead — cost +0.57 EP