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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Tennessee Titans 4th & 1 at the 69

Tennessee Titans 14 – Houston Texans 0

What Actually Happened

(5:47) 7-B.Gabbert up the middle to TEN 32 for 1 yard (97-A.Blackson).

The Three Options

GO -0.02 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 71% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 68, worth +1.48 EP
  • 29% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 69, worth -3.74 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (86 yards).

PUNT -1.08 EP
  • Houston Texans would take over around their own 27, worth -1.08 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model