4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Tennessee Titans 4th & 1 at the 13

Tennessee Titans 17 – Houston Texans 17

What Actually Happened

(1:05) (Field Goal formation) 4-R.Succop 31 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-B.Brinkley, Holder-6-B.Kern.

The Three Options

GO +1.33 EP
  • 65% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 12, worth +2.17 EP
  • 35% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 13, worth -0.20 EP
KICK +2.19 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 95% chance to make a 30-yard field goal: 3 points, then Houston Texans takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.35 EP
  • 5% chance to miss: Houston Texans takes over around their own 23, worth -0.55 EP
PUNT -0.18 EP
  • Houston Texans would take over around their own 11, worth -0.18 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model