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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Houston Texans 4th & 1 at the 79

Houston Texans 0 – Tennessee Titans 14

What Actually Happened

(7:43) (Punt formation) 8-T.Daniel punts 47 yards to TEN 32, Center-46-J.Weeks, fair catch by 25-A.Jackson. PENALTY on TEN-21-M.Butler, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at TEN 32.

The Three Options

GO -0.52 EP
Model's Pick
  • 71% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 78, worth +1.14 EP
  • 29% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 79, worth -4.53 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (96 yards).

PUNT -1.92 EP
What Happened
  • Tennessee Titans would take over around their own 36, worth -1.92 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.40 EP