4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Tennessee Titans 4th & 5 at the 90

Tennessee Titans 14 – Houston Texans 7

What Actually Happened

(6:50) (Punt formation) 6-B.Kern punts 51 yards to HOU 39, Center-48-B.Brinkley. 21-T.Ervin to HOU 48 for 9 yards (48-B.Brinkley).

The Three Options

GO -2.38 EP
  • 48% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 85, worth +0.77 EP
  • 52% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 90, worth -5.30 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (107 yards).

PUNT -2.31 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Houston Texans would take over around their own 47, worth -2.31 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model