Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Houston Texans 4th & 14 at the 67

Houston Texans 0 – Tennessee Titans 0

What Actually Happened

(12:17) (Punt formation) 8-T.Daniel punts 53 yards to TEN 14, Center-46-J.Weeks. 25-A.Jackson to TEN 16 for 2 yards (52-B.Peters; 41-Z.Cunningham). TEN-32-D.Fluellen was injured during the play. His return is Questionable.

The Three Options

GO -2.33 EP

28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 53, worth +2.38 EP
72% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 67, worth -4.11 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (84 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model