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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Houston Texans 4th & 8 at the 37

Houston Texans 17 – Tennessee Titans 17

What Actually Happened

(6:50) (Punt formation) 8-T.Daniel punts 37 yards to end zone, Center-46-J.Weeks, Touchback. PENALTY on HOU-23-J.Bademosi, Illegal Touch Kick, 5 yards, enforced at TEN 20.

The Three Options

GO +0.20 EP
Model's Pick
  • 32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 29, worth +4.00 EP
  • 68% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 37, worth -1.60 EP
KICK +0.02 EP
  • 55% chance to make a 54-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.82 EP
  • 45% chance to miss: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 46, worth -2.20 EP
PUNT -0.34 EP
What Happened
  • Tennessee Titans would take over around their own 11, worth -0.34 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.54 EP