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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Tennessee Titans 4th & 2 at the 61

Tennessee Titans 14 – Houston Texans 0

What Actually Happened

(9:06) (Punt formation) 6-B.Kern punts 50 yards to HOU 11, Center-48-B.Brinkley. 21-T.Ervin to HOU 24 for 13 yards (41-B.Trawick). PENALTY on HOU-43-S.Wright, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at HOU 22.

The Three Options

GO -0.12 EP
Model's Pick
  • 60% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 59, worth +2.07 EP
  • 40% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 61, worth -3.37 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (78 yards).

PUNT -0.97 EP
What Happened
  • Houston Texans would take over around their own 20, worth -0.97 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.85 EP