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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Tennessee Titans 4th & 6 at the 24

Tennessee Titans 14 – Houston Texans 17

What Actually Happened

(9:48) (Field Goal formation) 4-R.Succop 42 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-B.Brinkley, Holder-6-B.Kern.

The Three Options

GO +1.12 EP
  • 37% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 18, worth +4.69 EP
  • 63% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 24, worth -0.95 EP
KICK +1.35 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 84% chance to make a 41-yard field goal: 3 points, then Houston Texans takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.91 EP
  • 16% chance to miss: Houston Texans takes over around their own 34, worth -1.54 EP
PUNT -0.20 EP
  • Houston Texans would take over around their own 11, worth -0.20 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model