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Houston Texans

HC Bill O'Brien
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New England Patriots

HC Bill Belichick
Sunday 2018-09-09 · 13:00 Gillette Stadium, Foxborough US ☀️ Clear Spread 6.0 O/U 49.5

Win Probability

HOU
20.1%
NE
79.9%
☀️ Clear

Confidence: <strong>strong edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • HOU offense: -0.148 EPA/play over its last 8 games (27th in the league)
  • NE offense: +0.162 EPA/play over its last 8 games (1st in the league)
  • QB edge to NE: Tom Brady (NE) +0.224 vs Deshaun Watson (HOU) +0.111 EPA/dropback
  • HOU defense: +0.097 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (30th in the league)

Predicted Final Score

HOU 17
–
NE 29
Projected margin: NE by 12 Projected total: 46

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 1

HOU

Kayvon Webster CB Out Achilles
Sammie Coates WR Questionable Hamstring
Keke Coutee WR Questionable Hamstring
Duke Ejiofor LB Questionable Hamstring
Will Fuller WR Questionable Hamstring

NE

Marcus Cannon T Questionable Calf
Nate Ebner S Questionable Knee
Jacob Hollister TE Questionable Hamstring
Sony Michel RB Questionable Knee

Pulled fresh for 2018 week 1 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

HOU 20
–
NE 27

Prediction missed by 5 pts on margin, 1 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 11:58 TD NE (11:58) (Shotgun) 12-T.Brady pass deep left to 87-R.Gronkowski for 21 yards, TOUCHDOWN. 76th career Brady-Gronkowski TD connection, 5th all-time (2nd all-time QB-TE). HOU 0 – NE 6
  • Q1 02:37 FG HOU (2:37) 7-K.Fairbairn 42 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-8-T.Daniel. HOU 3 – NE 7
  • Q2 12:45 TD NE (12:45) (Shotgun) 12-T.Brady pass short right to 28-J.White for 12 yards, TOUCHDOWN. HOU 3 – NE 13
  • Q2 09:03 FG HOU (9:03) 7-K.Fairbairn 36 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-8-T.Daniel. HOU 6 – NE 14
  • Q2 00:19 TD NE (:19) (Shotgun) 12-T.Brady pass short left to 13-P.Dorsett for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. HOU 6 – NE 20
  • Q3 06:05 FG NE (6:05) 3-S.Gostkowski 39 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-6-R.Allen. HOU 6 – NE 24
  • Q3 01:54 TD HOU (1:54) 28-A.Blue right end for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. HOU 12 – NE 24
  • Q4 09:53 FG NE (9:53) 3-S.Gostkowski 35 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-6-R.Allen. HOU 13 – NE 27
  • Q4 02:12 TD HOU (2:12) (Shotgun) 4-D.Watson pass short middle to 12-B.Ellington for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN. HOU 19 – NE 27

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 NE 4th & 2 at the 67
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.82 EP
    p(convert) 65%

    (13:13) 6-R.Allen punts 45 yards to HOU 22, Center-49-J.Cardona, downed by NE-43-N.Ebner.

  • Q1 HOU 4th & 6 at the 69
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 40%

    (10:28) 8-T.Daniel punts 36 yards to NE 33, Center-46-J.Weeks, out of bounds.

  • Q1 NE 4th & 3 at the 49
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.56 EP
    p(convert) 56% p(FG) 26%

    (7:58) 6-R.Allen punts 40 yards to HOU 9, Center-49-J.Cardona, fair catch by 21-T.Ervin.

  • Q1 HOU 4th & 6 at the 43
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 37% p(FG) 40%

    (5:45) 8-T.Daniel punts 37 yards to NE 6, Center-46-J.Weeks, fair catch by 17-R.McCarron.

  • Q1 HOU 4th & 17 at the 24
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 21% p(FG) 84%

    (2:37) 7-K.Fairbairn 42 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-8-T.Daniel.

  • Q2 NE 4th & 1 at the 25
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 70% p(FG) 83%

    (14:37) 12-T.Brady up the middle to HOU 23 for 2 yards (92-B.Dunn).

  • Q2 HOU 4th & 14 at the 19
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 22% p(FG) 90%

    (9:03) 7-K.Fairbairn 36 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-8-T.Daniel.

  • Q2 NE 4th & 10 at the 70
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 38%

    (7:17) 6-R.Allen punts 47 yards to HOU 23, Center-49-J.Cardona. 21-T.Ervin to HOU 34 for 11 yards (31-J.Jones).

  • Q2 NE 4th & 4 at the 74
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.33 EP
    p(convert) 54%

    (4:34) 6-R.Allen punts 40 yards to HOU 34, Center-49-J.Cardona, downed by NE-34-R.Burkhead.

  • Q2 HOU 4th & 7 at the 52
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36% p(FG) 20%

    (1:39) 8-T.Daniel punts 30 yards to NE 22, Center-46-J.Weeks, downed by HOU-46-J.Weeks. NE 33-Hill partially blocked punt.

  • Q3 HOU 4th & 1 at the 63
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.33 EP
    p(convert) 69%

    (13:00) 8-T.Daniel punts 42 yards to NE 21, Center-46-J.Weeks, fair catch by 17-R.McCarron.

  • Q3 HOU 4th & 5 at the 17
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 37% p(FG) 92%

    (9:56) (Shotgun) 4-D.Watson pass incomplete deep middle to 84-R.Griffin.

  • Q3 NE 4th & 7 at the 20
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 38% p(FG) 90%

    (6:05) 3-S.Gostkowski 39 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-6-R.Allen.

  • Q4 NE 4th & 14 at the 17
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 27% p(FG) 92%

    (9:53) 3-S.Gostkowski 35 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-6-R.Allen.

  • Q4 HOU 4th & 9 at the 49
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32% p(FG) 26%

    (7:15) 8-T.Daniel punts 37 yards to NE 12, Center-46-J.Weeks, fair catch by 17-R.McCarron.

  • Q4 NE 4th & 2 at the 80
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.69 EP
    p(convert) 66%

    (5:27) 6-R.Allen punts 55 yards to HOU 25, Center-49-J.Cardona. 21-T.Ervin to HOU 34 for 9 yards (43-N.Ebner).

  • Q4 HOU 4th & 8 at the 64 late-game
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 35%

    (4:41) 8-T.Daniel punts 47 yards to NE 17, Center-46-J.Weeks. 17-R.McCarron MUFFS catch, RECOVERED by HOU-23-J.Bademosi at NE 16. 23-J.Bademosi to NE 16 for no gain (31-J.Jones).

  • Q4 NE 4th & 2 at the 55 late-game
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 63%

    (:51) 6-R.Allen punts 54 yards to HOU 1, Center-49-J.Cardona, downed by NE-31-J.Jones.