Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Houston Texans 4th & 6 at the 69

Houston Texans 0 – New England Patriots 7

(10:28) 8-T.Daniel punts 36 yards to NE 33, Center-46-J.Weeks, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -1.87 EP

40% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 63, worth +1.55 EP
60% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 69, worth -4.16 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (86 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model