4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Houston Texans 4th & 7 at the 52

Houston Texans 6 – New England Patriots 14

What Actually Happened

(1:39) 8-T.Daniel punts 30 yards to NE 22, Center-46-J.Weeks, downed by HOU-46-J.Weeks. NE 33-Hill partially blocked punt.

The Three Options

GO -0.81 EP
  • 36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 45, worth +2.64 EP
  • 64% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 52, worth -2.72 EP
KICK -1.74 EP
  • 20% chance to make a 69-yard field goal: 3 points, then New England Patriots takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.89 EP
  • 80% chance to miss: New England Patriots takes over around their own 49, worth -2.65 EP
PUNT -0.50 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • New England Patriots would take over around their own 15, worth -0.50 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model