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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 New England Patriots 4th & 3 at the 49

New England Patriots 7 – Houston Texans 0

What Actually Happened

(7:58) 6-R.Allen punts 40 yards to HOU 9, Center-49-J.Cardona, fair catch by 21-T.Ervin.

The Three Options

GO +0.71 EP
Model's Pick
  • 56% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 46, worth +3.22 EP
  • 44% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 49, worth -2.46 EP
KICK -1.19 EP
  • 26% chance to make a 66-yard field goal: 3 points, then Houston Texans takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.46 EP
  • 74% chance to miss: Houston Texans takes over around their own 49, worth -2.47 EP
PUNT +0.15 EP
What Happened
  • Houston Texans would take over around their own 14, worth +0.15 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.56 EP