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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New England Patriots 4th & 14 at the 17

New England Patriots 24 – Houston Texans 13

What Actually Happened

(9:53) 3-S.Gostkowski 35 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-6-R.Allen.

The Three Options

GO +0.75 EP
  • 27% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 3, worth +6.01 EP
  • 73% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 17, worth -1.23 EP
KICK +1.14 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 92% chance to make a 34-yard field goal: 3 points, then Houston Texans takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.37 EP
  • 8% chance to miss: Houston Texans takes over around their own 27, worth -1.62 EP
PUNT -0.82 EP
  • Houston Texans would take over around their own 11, worth -0.82 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model