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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New England Patriots 4th & 4 at the 74

New England Patriots 14 – Houston Texans 6

What Actually Happened

(4:34) 6-R.Allen punts 40 yards to HOU 34, Center-49-J.Cardona, downed by NE-34-R.Burkhead.

The Three Options

GO -1.04 EP
Model's Pick
  • 54% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +1.51 EP
  • 46% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 74, worth -4.07 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (91 yards).

PUNT -1.37 EP
What Happened
  • Houston Texans would take over around their own 32, worth -1.37 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.33 EP