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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 New England Patriots 4th & 2 at the 67

New England Patriots 0 – Houston Texans 0

What Actually Happened

(13:13) 6-R.Allen punts 45 yards to HOU 22, Center-49-J.Cardona, downed by NE-43-N.Ebner.

The Three Options

GO +0.18 EP
Model's Pick
  • 65% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +2.27 EP
  • 35% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 67, worth -3.67 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (84 yards).

PUNT -0.65 EP
What Happened
  • Houston Texans would take over around their own 25, worth -0.65 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.82 EP