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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Houston Texans 4th & 14 at the 19

Houston Texans 3 – New England Patriots 14

What Actually Happened

(9:03) 7-K.Fairbairn 36 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-8-T.Daniel.

The Three Options

GO +0.52 EP
  • 22% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 5, worth +5.70 EP
  • 78% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 19, worth -0.99 EP
KICK +1.29 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 90% chance to make a 36-yard field goal: 3 points, then New England Patriots takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.60 EP
  • 10% chance to miss: New England Patriots takes over around their own 29, worth -1.63 EP
PUNT -0.43 EP
  • New England Patriots would take over around their own 11, worth -0.43 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model