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Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades.
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Q3
Houston Texans
4th & 5 at the 17
Houston Texans 6 – New England Patriots 21
What Actually Happened
(9:56) (Shotgun) 4-D.Watson pass incomplete deep middle to 84-R.Griffin.
The Three Options
GO
+1.55 EP
What Happened
-
37% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 12, worth +5.06 EP
- 63% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 17, worth -0.47 EP
KICK
+1.81 EP
Model's Pick
- 92% chance to make a 34-yard field goal: 3 points, then New England Patriots takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.05 EP
- 8% chance to miss: New England Patriots takes over around their own 27, worth -0.99 EP
PUNT
+0.17 EP
- New England Patriots would take over around their own 11, worth +0.17 EP
The Verdict
Chose GO
✓ matched the model
