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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New England Patriots 4th & 10 at the 70

New England Patriots 14 – Houston Texans 6

What Actually Happened

(7:17) 6-R.Allen punts 47 yards to HOU 23, Center-49-J.Cardona. 21-T.Ervin to HOU 34 for 11 yards (31-J.Jones).

The Three Options

GO -1.49 EP
  • 38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 60, worth +2.27 EP
  • 62% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 70, worth -3.84 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (87 yards).

PUNT -1.28 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Houston Texans would take over around their own 28, worth -1.28 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model