Win Probability
Confidence: slight edge Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the full track record.
Key Insights
- PHI offense: +0.045 EPA/play over its last 8 games (6th in the league)
- QB edge to ATL: Nick Foles (PHI) -0.036 vs Matt Ryan (ATL) +0.163 EPA/dropback
- PHI defense: -0.056 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (10th in the league)
- ATL offense: +0.008 EPA/play over its last 8 games (13th in the league)
- ATL defense: -0.004 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (17th in the league)
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Predicted Final Score
The range under each score is this model's typical error on unseen games — ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat the bigger number as the middle of that range, not a precise call — see the full track record.
Injury Report — Week 1
ATL
Pulled fresh for 2018 week 1 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.
Actual Result
Prediction missed by 4 pts on margin, 16 pts on total.
Scoring Summary
- Q1 05:03 FG ATL (5:03) 3-M.Bryant 21 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Overbaugh, Holder-5-M.Bosher. ATL 3 – PHI 0
- Q2 06:12 FG PHI (6:12) 4-J.Elliott 26 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-45-R.Lovato, Holder-1-C.Johnston. ATL 3 – PHI 3
- Q2 02:13 FG ATL (2:13) 3-M.Bryant 52 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Overbaugh, Holder-5-M.Bosher. ATL 6 – PHI 3
- Q3 04:41 TD PHI (4:41) (Shotgun) 26-J.Ajayi left guard for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. ATL 6 – PHI 9
- Q4 09:53 TD ATL (9:53) 26-T.Coleman right tackle for 9 yards, TOUCHDOWN. ATL 12 – PHI 10
- Q4 02:25 TD PHI (2:25) 26-J.Ajayi left end for 11 yards, TOUCHDOWN. ATL 12 – PHI 16
Fourth-Down Decisions
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Q1 ATL 4th & 1 at the 1Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 63% p(FG) 99%
(10:55) 24-D.Freeman left end to PHI 2 for -1 yards (54-K.Grugier-Hill, 58-J.Hicks).
See the full breakdown → -
Q1 PHI 4th & 4 at the 92Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 53%
(9:20) 1-C.Johnston punts 56 yards to ATL 36, Center-45-R.Lovato. 14-J.Hardy to ATL 41 for 5 yards (54-K.Grugier-Hill). PENALTY on PHI-18-S.Gibson, Unsportsmanlike Conduct, 15 yards, enforced at ATL 41.
See the full breakdown → -
Q1 ATL 4th & 3 at the 3Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.78 EPp(convert) 45% p(FG) 98%
(5:03) 3-M.Bryant 21 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Overbaugh, Holder-5-M.Bosher.
See the full breakdown → -
Q1 PHI 4th & 18 at the 65Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 26%
(:33) 1-C.Johnston punts 65 yards to end zone, Center-45-R.Lovato, Touchback.
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Q2 ATL 4th & 19 at the 89Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 27%
(14:18) 5-M.Bosher punts 49 yards to PHI 40, Center-46-J.Overbaugh, fair catch by 43-D.Sproles.
See the full breakdown → -
Q2 PHI 4th & 8 at the 8Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 31% p(FG) 97%
(6:12) 4-J.Elliott 26 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-45-R.Lovato, Holder-1-C.Johnston.
See the full breakdown → -
Q2 ATL 4th & 17 at the 34Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 23% p(FG) 66%
(2:13) 3-M.Bryant 52 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Overbaugh, Holder-5-M.Bosher.
See the full breakdown → -
Q2 PHI 4th & 8 at the 69Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 39%
(1:30) 1-C.Johnston punts 58 yards to ATL 11, Center-45-R.Lovato, downed by PHI-29-A.Maddox.
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Q2 ATL 4th & 8 at the 74Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 38%
(:44) 5-M.Bosher punts 57 yards to PHI 17, Center-46-J.Overbaugh. 43-D.Sproles to PHI 25 for 8 yards (34-B.Poole). PENALTY on PHI-50-L.Reynolds, Unnecessary Roughness, 12 yards, enforced at PHI 25.
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Q3 PHI 4th & 9 at the 58Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 36%
(12:33) 1-C.Johnston punts 38 yards to ATL 20, Center-45-R.Lovato, fair catch by 14-J.Hardy.
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Q3 ATL 4th & 16 at the 74Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 28%
(10:22) 5-M.Bosher punts 46 yards to PHI 28, Center-46-J.Overbaugh. 43-D.Sproles to PHI 37 for 9 yards (54-F.Oluokun).
See the full breakdown → -
Q3 ATL 4th & 10 at the 60Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 33%
(2:44) 5-M.Bosher punts 44 yards to PHI 16, Center-46-J.Overbaugh, downed by ATL-30-R.Ortiz.
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Q3 PHI 4th & 6 at the 80Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 45%
(1:35) 1-C.Johnston punts 50 yards to ATL 30, Center-45-R.Lovato. 14-J.Hardy to ATL 36 for 6 yards (28-W.Smallwood; 45-R.Lovato). PENALTY on ATL-27-D.Kazee, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 10 yards, enforced at ATL 36.
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Q3 ATL 4th & 6 at the 70Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 42%
(:34) 5-M.Bosher punts 38 yards to PHI 32, Center-46-J.Overbaugh. 37-T.Sullivan MUFFS catch, touched at PHI 32, RECOVERED by ATL-36-K.Ishmael at PHI 32. 36-K.Ishmael to PHI 32 for no gain (50-L.Reynolds).
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Q4 PHI 4th & 14 at the 79Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 31%
(7:42) 1-C.Johnston punts 46 yards to ATL 33, Center-45-R.Lovato, out of bounds.
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Q4 ATL 4th & 14 at the 71Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 29%
(5:04) 5-M.Bosher punts 52 yards to PHI 19, Center-46-J.Overbaugh. 43-D.Sproles to PHI 31 for 12 yards (85-E.Saubert; 36-K.Ishmael). PENALTY on ATL-85-E.Saubert, Face Mask (15 Yards), 15 yards, enforced at PHI 31.
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