Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Atlanta Falcons 4th & 6 at the 70

Atlanta Falcons 6 – Philadelphia Eagles 10

What Actually Happened

(:34) 5-M.Bosher punts 38 yards to PHI 32, Center-46-J.Overbaugh. 37-T.Sullivan MUFFS catch, touched at PHI 32, RECOVERED by ATL-36-K.Ishmael at PHI 32. 36-K.Ishmael to PHI 32 for no gain (50-L.Reynolds).

The Three Options

GO -1.73 EP

42% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 64, worth +1.35 EP
58% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 70, worth -3.99 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (87 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model