Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Atlanta Falcons 4th & 16 at the 74

Atlanta Falcons 6 – Philadelphia Eagles 3

(10:22) 5-M.Bosher punts 46 yards to PHI 28, Center-46-J.Overbaugh. 43-D.Sproles to PHI 37 for 9 yards (54-F.Oluokun).

The Three Options

GO -2.77 EP

28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 58, worth +1.76 EP
72% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 74, worth -4.51 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (91 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model