Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Atlanta Falcons 4th & 14 at the 71

Atlanta Falcons 12 – Philadelphia Eagles 10

What Actually Happened

(5:04) 5-M.Bosher punts 52 yards to PHI 19, Center-46-J.Overbaugh. 43-D.Sproles to PHI 31 for 12 yards (85-E.Saubert; 36-K.Ishmael). PENALTY on ATL-85-E.Saubert, Face Mask (15 Yards), 15 yards, enforced at PHI 31.

The Three Options

GO -2.20 EP

29% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 57, worth +1.74 EP
71% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 71, worth -3.83 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (88 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model