Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Atlanta Falcons 4th & 8 at the 74

Atlanta Falcons 6 – Philadelphia Eagles 3

What Actually Happened

(:44) 5-M.Bosher punts 57 yards to PHI 17, Center-46-J.Overbaugh. 43-D.Sproles to PHI 25 for 8 yards (34-B.Poole). PENALTY on PHI-50-L.Reynolds, Unnecessary Roughness, 12 yards, enforced at PHI 25.

The Three Options

GO -2.12 EP

38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 66, worth +0.93 EP
62% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 74, worth -3.99 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (91 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model