Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Atlanta Falcons 4th & 19 at the 89

Atlanta Falcons 3 – Philadelphia Eagles 0

(14:18) 5-M.Bosher punts 49 yards to PHI 40, Center-46-J.Overbaugh, fair catch by 43-D.Sproles.

The Three Options

GO -3.44 EP

27% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +1.23 EP
73% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 89, worth -5.17 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (106 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model