Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Atlanta Falcons 4th & 10 at the 60

Atlanta Falcons 6 – Philadelphia Eagles 10

(2:44) 5-M.Bosher punts 44 yards to PHI 16, Center-46-J.Overbaugh, downed by ATL-30-R.Ortiz.

The Three Options

GO -1.48 EP

33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 50, worth +2.41 EP
67% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 60, worth -3.40 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (77 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model