Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 14 at the 79

Philadelphia Eagles 10 – Atlanta Falcons 12

(7:42) 1-C.Johnston punts 46 yards to ATL 33, Center-45-R.Lovato, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -2.52 EP

31% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.54 EP
69% chance to fail: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 79, worth -4.37 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (96 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model