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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 4 at the 92

Philadelphia Eagles 0 – Atlanta Falcons 0

What Actually Happened

(9:20) 1-C.Johnston punts 56 yards to ATL 36, Center-45-R.Lovato. 14-J.Hardy to ATL 41 for 5 yards (54-K.Grugier-Hill). PENALTY on PHI-18-S.Gibson, Unsportsmanlike Conduct, 15 yards, enforced at ATL 41.

The Three Options

GO -2.21 EP
Model's Pick
  • 53% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 88, worth +0.50 EP
  • 47% chance to fail: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 92, worth -5.30 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (109 yards).

PUNT -2.49 EP
What Happened
  • Atlanta Falcons would take over around their own 50, worth -2.49 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model