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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 8 at the 8

Philadelphia Eagles 0 – Atlanta Falcons 3

What Actually Happened

(6:12) 4-J.Elliott 26 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-45-R.Lovato, Holder-1-C.Johnston.

The Three Options

GO +1.68 EP
  • 31% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.82 EP
  • 69% chance to fail: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 8, worth -0.21 EP
KICK +1.78 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 97% chance to make a 25-yard field goal: 3 points, then Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.86 EP
  • 3% chance to miss: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 21, worth -0.84 EP
PUNT -0.32 EP
  • Atlanta Falcons would take over around their own 11, worth -0.32 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model