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New York Jets

HC Todd Bowles
@
NE Home

New England Patriots

HC Bill Belichick
Sunday 2017-12-31 · 13:00 Gillette Stadium, Foxborough US 🌨 Snow Spread 17.0 O/U 43.5

Win Probability

NYJ
18.2%
NE
81.8%
🌨 Snow

Confidence: <strong>strong edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • QB edge to NE: Tom Brady (NE) +0.228 vs Bryce Petty (NYJ) -0.258 EPA/dropback
  • NE offense: +0.174 EPA/play over its last 8 games (1st in the league)
  • NYJ offense: -0.102 EPA/play over its last 8 games (23rd in the league)
  • NE defense: -0.035 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (15th in the league)

Predicted Final Score

NYJ 16
–
NE 27
Projected margin: NE by 11 Projected total: 43

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 17

NYJ

Brandon Shell T Out Concussion
Austin Seferian-Jenkins TE Doubtful Ribs
Matt Forte RB Questionable Knee
Kony Ealy DE Questionable Knee
Akeem Judd RB Questionable Ankle

NE

Alan Branch DT Out Knee
Rex Burkhead RB Out Knee
Mike Gillislee RB Out Knee
Eric Lee DE Questionable Ankle
Chris Hogan WR Questionable Shoulder
Devin McCourty S Questionable Shoulder
Matt Slater WR Questionable Hamstring
Kyle Van Noy LB Questionable Calf
LaAdrian Waddle T Questionable Ankle
James White RB Questionable Ankle

Pulled fresh for 2017 week 17 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

NYJ 6
–
NE 26

Prediction missed by 9 pts on margin, 11 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 09:35 TD NE (9:35) 33-D.Lewis left end for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NYJ 0 – NE 6
  • Q1 01:47 FG NYJ (1:47) 7-C.Catanzaro 48 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-T.Hennessy, Holder-4-L.Edwards. NYJ 3 – NE 7
  • Q2 04:20 TD NE (4:20) (Shotgun) 12-T.Brady pass short middle to 14-B.Cooks for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NE 12-Brady 550th career TD pass (including postseason), 3rd-most all-time. NYJ 3 – NE 13
  • Q2 00:24 TD NE (:24) 12-T.Brady pass short right to 33-D.Lewis for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NYJ 3 – NE 20
  • Q3 01:32 FG NE (1:32) 3-S.Gostkowski 21 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-6-R.Allen. NYJ 3 – NE 24
  • Q4 10:32 FG NYJ (10:32) 7-C.Catanzaro 35 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-T.Hennessy, Holder-4-L.Edwards. NYJ 6 – NE 24
  • Q4 06:11 SAF NE (6:11) (Shotgun) 9-B.Petty sacked in End Zone for -7 yards, SAFETY (55-E.Lee). NYJ 6 – NE 26

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 NE 4th & 2 at the 21
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 58% p(FG) 87%

    (11:13) (Shotgun) 12-T.Brady pass short middle to 80-D.Amendola to NYJ 14 for 7 yards (32-J.Burris).

  • Q1 NYJ 4th & 5 at the 82
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 45%

    (7:49) 4-L.Edwards punts 54 yards to NE 28, Center-42-T.Hennessy. 80-D.Amendola to NE 34 for 6 yards (42-T.Hennessy).

  • Q1 NE 4th & 16 at the 53
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 29% p(FG) 16%

    (4:59) 6-R.Allen punts 35 yards to NYJ 18, Center-49-J.Cardona, fair catch by 87-J.Natson.

  • Q1 NYJ 4th & 19 at the 30
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 20% p(FG) 71%

    (1:47) 7-C.Catanzaro 48 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-T.Hennessy, Holder-4-L.Edwards.

  • Q1 NE 4th & 12 at the 67
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34%

    (:26) 6-R.Allen punts 52 yards to NYJ 15, Center-49-J.Cardona. 87-J.Natson to NYJ 14 for -1 yards (31-J.Jones).

  • Q2 NYJ 4th & 8 at the 22
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30% p(FG) 86%

    (12:33) 7-C.Catanzaro 40 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-42-T.Hennessy, Holder-4-L.Edwards.

  • Q2 NE 4th & 13 at the 73
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34%

    (11:01) (Punt formation) 6-R.Allen punts 46 yards to NYJ 27, Center-49-J.Cardona, fair catch by 87-J.Natson.

  • Q2 NYJ 4th & 10 at the 60
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 31%

    (8:47) 4-L.Edwards punts 48 yards to NE 12, Center-42-T.Hennessy. 80-D.Amendola to NE 27 for 15 yards (45-R.Miles).

  • Q2 NYJ 4th & 19 at the 81
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 25%

    (2:10) 4-L.Edwards punts 41 yards to NE 40, Center-42-T.Hennessy. 80-D.Amendola to NE 42 for 2 yards (45-R.Miles).

  • Q3 NYJ 4th & 3 at the 62
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 51%

    (13:02) 4-L.Edwards punts 45 yards to NE 17, Center-42-T.Hennessy. 80-D.Amendola to NE 18 for 1 yard (45-R.Miles). PENALTY on NE-31-J.Jones, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 9 yards, enforced at NE 18. Penalty on NE-29-J.Bademosi, Unnecessary Roughness, declined.

  • Q3 NE 4th & 4 at the 85
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.39 EP
    p(convert) 55%

    (11:37) 6-R.Allen punts 45 yards to NYJ 40, Center-49-J.Cardona, downed by NE-47-J.Hollister.

  • Q3 NYJ 4th & 6 at the 56
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 39%

    (10:40) 4-L.Edwards punts 38 yards to NE 18, Center-42-T.Hennessy, fair catch by 80-D.Amendola.

  • Q3 NE 4th & 12 at the 84
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36%

    (9:35) 6-R.Allen punts 40 yards to NYJ 44, Center-49-J.Cardona. 87-J.Natson to NYJ 49 for 5 yards (29-J.Bademosi). PENALTY on NYJ-34-J.Clark, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 10 yards, enforced at NYJ 49.

  • Q3 NYJ 4th & 3 at the 54
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.64 EP
    p(convert) 50%

    (8:06) 4-L.Edwards punts 54 yards to end zone, Center-42-T.Hennessy, Touchback.

  • Q3 NE 4th & 3 at the 3
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.12 EP
    p(convert) 49% p(FG) 98%

    (1:32) 3-S.Gostkowski 21 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-6-R.Allen.

  • Q3 NYJ 4th & 3 at the 72
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 52%

    (:13) 4-L.Edwards punts 44 yards to NE 28, Center-42-T.Hennessy, fair catch by 80-D.Amendola.

  • Q4 NE 4th & 17 at the 34
    Chose PUNT Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.41 EP
    p(convert) 26% p(FG) 61%

    (13:38) 6-R.Allen punts 30 yards to NYJ 4, Center-49-J.Cardona, downed by NE-18-M.Slater.

  • Q4 NYJ 4th & 9 at the 17
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 28% p(FG) 92%

    (10:32) 7-C.Catanzaro 35 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-T.Hennessy, Holder-4-L.Edwards.

  • Q4 NE 4th & 5 at the 41
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.97 EP
    p(convert) 45% p(FG) 42%

    (6:50) 6-R.Allen punts 37 yards to NYJ 4, Center-49-J.Cardona, downed by NE-18-M.Slater.

  • Q4 NE 4th & 5 at the 56 late-game
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 47%

    (3:10) 6-R.Allen punts 53 yards to NYJ 3, Center-49-J.Cardona, out of bounds.

  • Q4 NYJ 4th & 10 at the 66 late-game
    Chose GO Model wanted PUNT instead — cost +0.53 EP
    p(convert) 32%

    (1:40) (Shotgun) 9-B.Petty pass short left to 85-N.Sterling pushed ob at NYJ 46 for 12 yards (25-E.Rowe).