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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 New England Patriots 4th & 4 at the 85

New England Patriots 21 – New York Jets 3

What Actually Happened

(11:37) 6-R.Allen punts 45 yards to NYJ 40, Center-49-J.Cardona, downed by NE-47-J.Hollister.

The Three Options

GO -1.76 EP
Model's Pick
  • 55% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 81, worth +0.85 EP
  • 45% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 85, worth -4.92 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (102 yards).

PUNT -2.15 EP
What Happened
  • New York Jets would take over around their own 43, worth -2.15 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.39 EP