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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 New York Jets 4th & 5 at the 82

New York Jets 0 – New England Patriots 7

What Actually Happened

(7:49) 4-L.Edwards punts 54 yards to NE 28, Center-42-T.Hennessy. 80-D.Amendola to NE 34 for 6 yards (42-T.Hennessy).

The Three Options

GO -2.59 EP
  • 45% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 77, worth +0.41 EP
  • 55% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 82, worth -5.04 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (99 yards).

PUNT -2.38 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • New England Patriots would take over around their own 40, worth -2.38 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model