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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New York Jets 4th & 9 at the 17

New York Jets 3 – New England Patriots 24

What Actually Happened

(10:32) 7-C.Catanzaro 35 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-T.Hennessy, Holder-4-L.Edwards.

The Three Options

GO +0.88 EP
  • 28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 8, worth +5.18 EP
  • 72% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 17, worth -0.80 EP
KICK +1.53 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 92% chance to make a 34-yard field goal: 3 points, then New England Patriots takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.80 EP
  • 8% chance to miss: New England Patriots takes over around their own 27, worth -1.27 EP
PUNT -0.29 EP
  • New England Patriots would take over around their own 11, worth -0.29 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model