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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New England Patriots 4th & 13 at the 73

New England Patriots 7 – New York Jets 3

What Actually Happened

(11:01) (Punt formation) 6-R.Allen punts 46 yards to NYJ 27, Center-49-J.Cardona, fair catch by 87-J.Natson.

The Three Options

GO -1.90 EP
  • 34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 60, worth +2.36 EP
  • 66% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 73, worth -4.08 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (90 yards).

PUNT -1.31 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • New York Jets would take over around their own 31, worth -1.31 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model