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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 New England Patriots 4th & 16 at the 53

New England Patriots 7 – New York Jets 0

What Actually Happened

(4:59) 6-R.Allen punts 35 yards to NYJ 18, Center-49-J.Cardona, fair catch by 87-J.Natson.

The Three Options

GO -0.83 EP
  • 29% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 37, worth +3.77 EP
  • 71% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 53, worth -2.67 EP
KICK -1.75 EP
  • 16% chance to make a 70-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Jets takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.34 EP
  • 84% chance to miss: New York Jets takes over around their own 49, worth -2.52 EP
PUNT -0.35 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • New York Jets would take over around their own 15, worth -0.35 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model