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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 New England Patriots 4th & 2 at the 21

New England Patriots 0 – New York Jets 0

What Actually Happened

(11:13) (Shotgun) 12-T.Brady pass short middle to 80-D.Amendola to NYJ 14 for 7 yards (32-J.Burris).

The Three Options

GO +2.80 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 58% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 19, worth +5.05 EP
  • 42% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 21, worth -0.31 EP
KICK +1.99 EP
  • 87% chance to make a 38-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Jets takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.43 EP
  • 13% chance to miss: New York Jets takes over around their own 31, worth -1.04 EP
PUNT +0.31 EP
  • New York Jets would take over around their own 11, worth +0.31 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model