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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New England Patriots 4th & 5 at the 41

New England Patriots 24 – New York Jets 6

What Actually Happened

(6:50) 6-R.Allen punts 37 yards to NYJ 4, Center-49-J.Cardona, downed by NE-18-M.Slater.

The Three Options

GO +0.54 EP
Model's Pick
  • 45% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 36, worth +3.38 EP
  • 55% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 41, worth -1.81 EP
KICK -0.60 EP
  • 42% chance to make a 58-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Jets takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.81 EP
  • 58% chance to miss: New York Jets takes over around their own 49, worth -2.33 EP
PUNT -0.43 EP
What Happened
  • New York Jets would take over around their own 12, worth -0.43 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.97 EP