Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New York Jets 4th & 10 at the 66

New York Jets 6 – New England Patriots 26

(1:40) (Shotgun) 9-B.Petty pass short left to 85-N.Sterling pushed ob at NYJ 46 for 12 yards (25-E.Rowe).

The Three Options

GO -1.35 EP

What Happened

32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 56, worth +1.53 EP
68% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 66, worth -2.70 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (83 yards).

Chose GO Model wanted PUNT instead — cost +0.53 EP