Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 New England Patriots 4th & 12 at the 84

New England Patriots 21 – New York Jets 3

What Actually Happened

(9:35) 6-R.Allen punts 40 yards to NYJ 44, Center-49-J.Cardona. 87-J.Natson to NYJ 49 for 5 yards (29-J.Bademosi). PENALTY on NYJ-34-J.Clark, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 10 yards, enforced at NYJ 49.

The Three Options

GO -2.53 EP

36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 72, worth +1.42 EP
64% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 84, worth -4.79 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (101 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model