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Tampa Bay Buccaneers

HC Dirk Koetter
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New Orleans Saints

HC Sean Payton
Sunday 2017-11-05 · 13:00 Mercedes-Benz Superdome, New Orleans US 🏟 Dome Spread 7.0 O/U 54.0

Win Probability

TB
36.5%
NO
63.5%
🏟 Dome

Confidence: <strong>clear edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • NO offense: +0.106 EPA/play over its last 8 games (3rd in the league)
  • Drew Brees (NO): +0.137 EPA/dropback in prior starts
  • Indoors — weather neutralised
  • TB offense: -0.024 EPA/play over its last 8 games (13th in the league)

Predicted Final Score

TB 22
–
NO 26
Projected margin: NO by 4 Projected total: 48

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 9

TB

Brent Grimes CB Out Shoulder
Chris Baker DT Questionable Ankle
Adam Humphries WR Questionable Rib
Jameis Winston QB Questionable right Shoulder
Robert Ayers DE Questionable Ankle
Kendell Beckwith LB Questionable Knee

NO

Larry Warford G Out Abdomen

Pulled fresh for 2017 week 9 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

TB 10
–
NO 30

Prediction missed by 16 pts on margin, 8 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 08:54 FG NO (8:54) 3-W.Lutz 40 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-Z.Wood, Holder-6-T.Morstead. TB 0 – NO 3
  • Q1 06:37 TD NO (6:37) 9-B.Anger punt is BLOCKED by 34-J.Hardee, Center-65-G.Sanborn, RECOVERED by NO-34-J.Hardee at TB 7. 34-J.Hardee for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN. TB 0 – NO 9
  • Q2 03:03 FG TB (3:03) 7-P.Murray 50 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-65-G.Sanborn, Holder-9-B.Anger. TB 3 – NO 9
  • Q2 01:06 TD NO (1:06) (Shotgun) 9-D.Brees pass short left to 41-A.Kamara for 33 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Pass -5, YAC 38 TB 3 – NO 15
  • Q3 10:03 TD NO (10:03) 41-A.Kamara left guard for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN. TB 3 – NO 22
  • Q3 09:46 TD NO (9:46) 9-D.Brees pass deep middle to 19-T.Ginn for 36 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Pass 36, YAC 0 TB 3 – NO 29
  • Q4 06:54 TD TB (6:54) 14-R.Fitzpatrick pass short left to 88-L.Stocker for 8 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Pass 2, YAC 6 TB 9 – NO 30

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 NO 4th & 4 at the 21
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 45% p(FG) 90%

    (8:54) 3-W.Lutz 40 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-Z.Wood, Holder-6-T.Morstead.

  • Q1 TB 4th & 7 at the 72
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 40%

    (6:37) 9-B.Anger punt is BLOCKED by 34-J.Hardee, Center-65-G.Sanborn, RECOVERED by NO-34-J.Hardee at TB 7. 34-J.Hardee for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

  • Q1 TB 4th & 4 at the 43
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.71 EP
    p(convert) 45% p(FG) 48%

    (2:43) 9-B.Anger punts 32 yards to NO 11, Center-65-G.Sanborn, fair catch by 19-T.Ginn.

  • Q1 NO 4th & 8 at the 87
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 42%

    (1:49) 6-T.Morstead punts 40 yards to TB 47, Center-49-Z.Wood, fair catch by 18-B.Reedy.

  • Q2 TB 4th & 18 at the 50
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 24% p(FG) 31%

    (14:20) 9-B.Anger punts 38 yards to NO 12, Center-65-G.Sanborn, fair catch by 19-T.Ginn.

  • Q2 TB 4th & 4 at the 32
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 44% p(FG) 74%

    (3:03) 7-P.Murray 50 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-65-G.Sanborn, Holder-9-B.Anger.

  • Q2 TB 4th & 7 at the 72
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 40%

    (:36) 9-B.Anger punts 47 yards to NO 25, Center-65-G.Sanborn, fair catch by 19-T.Ginn.

  • Q3 TB 4th & 6 at the 71
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 42%

    (13:39) 9-B.Anger punts 43 yards to NO 28, Center-65-G.Sanborn. 19-T.Ginn MUFFS catch, and recovers at NO 28. 19-T.Ginn to NO 28 for no gain (59-D.Bond).

  • Q3 TB 4th & 20 at the 85
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 26%

    (8:28) 9-B.Anger punts 48 yards to NO 37, Center-65-G.Sanborn. 19-T.Ginn pushed ob at NO 32 for -5 yards (37-K.Tandy).

  • Q3 NO 4th & 2 at the 25
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.64 EP
    p(convert) 57% p(FG) 85%

    (4:01) 3-W.Lutz 43 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-49-Z.Wood, Holder-6-T.Morstead.

  • Q4 TB 4th & 20 at the 36
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 21% p(FG) 65%

    (14:52) 7-P.Murray 54 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-65-G.Sanborn, Holder-9-B.Anger.

  • Q4 NO 4th & 13 at the 59
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 31%

    (12:34) 6-T.Morstead punts 51 yards to TB 8, Center-49-Z.Wood, out of bounds.

  • Q4 TB 4th & 10 at the 50
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32% p(FG) 31%

    (8:23) 9-B.Anger punts 31 yards to NO 19, Center-65-G.Sanborn. 83-W.Snead MUFFS catch, RECOVERED by TB-12-C.Godwin at NO 19. 12-C.Godwin to NO 19 for no gain (83-W.Snead).