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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 New Orleans Saints 4th & 8 at the 87

New Orleans Saints 9 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 0

What Actually Happened

(1:49) 6-T.Morstead punts 40 yards to TB 47, Center-49-Z.Wood, fair catch by 18-B.Reedy.

The Three Options

GO -2.35 EP
  • 42% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 79, worth +1.19 EP
  • 58% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 87, worth -4.89 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (104 yards).

PUNT -1.75 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Tampa Bay Buccaneers would take over around their own 45, worth -1.75 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model