Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4th & 7 at the 72

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 0 – New Orleans Saints 3

(6:37) 9-B.Anger punt is BLOCKED by 34-J.Hardee, Center-65-G.Sanborn, RECOVERED by NO-34-J.Hardee at TB 7. 34-J.Hardee for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

The Three Options

GO -2.21 EP

40% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.16 EP
60% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 72, worth -4.44 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (89 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model