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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4th & 4 at the 43

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 0 – New Orleans Saints 9

What Actually Happened

(2:43) 9-B.Anger punts 32 yards to NO 11, Center-65-G.Sanborn, fair catch by 19-T.Ginn.

The Three Options

GO -0.06 EP
Model's Pick
  • 45% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 39, worth +3.00 EP
  • 55% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 43, worth -2.60 EP
KICK -0.88 EP
  • 48% chance to make a 60-yard field goal: 3 points, then New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.49 EP
  • 52% chance to miss: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 49, worth -3.08 EP
PUNT -0.78 EP
What Happened
  • New Orleans Saints would take over around their own 12, worth -0.78 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.71 EP