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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 New Orleans Saints 4th & 2 at the 25

New Orleans Saints 30 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 3

What Actually Happened

(4:01) 3-W.Lutz 43 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-49-Z.Wood, Holder-6-T.Morstead.

The Three Options

GO +2.23 EP
Model's Pick
  • 57% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 23, worth +4.53 EP
  • 43% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 25, worth -0.84 EP
KICK +1.58 EP
What Happened
  • 85% chance to make a 42-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.16 EP
  • 15% chance to miss: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 35, worth -1.78 EP
PUNT +0.06 EP
  • Tampa Bay Buccaneers would take over around their own 11, worth +0.06 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.64 EP