Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4th & 20 at the 85

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 3 – New Orleans Saints 30

(8:28) 9-B.Anger punts 48 yards to NO 37, Center-65-G.Sanborn. 19-T.Ginn pushed ob at NO 32 for -5 yards (37-K.Tandy).

The Three Options

GO -3.41 EP

26% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.52 EP
74% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 85, worth -5.12 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (102 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model