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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4th & 4 at the 32

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 0 – New Orleans Saints 9

What Actually Happened

(3:03) 7-P.Murray 50 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-65-G.Sanborn, Holder-9-B.Anger.

The Three Options

GO +0.75 EP
Model's Pick
  • 44% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 28, worth +3.85 EP
  • 56% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 32, worth -1.67 EP
KICK +0.74 EP
What Happened
  • 74% chance to make a 49-yard field goal: 3 points, then New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.74 EP
  • 26% chance to miss: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 42, worth -2.11 EP
PUNT -0.56 EP
  • New Orleans Saints would take over around their own 11, worth -0.56 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model