Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4th & 6 at the 71

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 3 – New Orleans Saints 16

What Actually Happened

(13:39) 9-B.Anger punts 43 yards to NO 28, Center-65-G.Sanborn. 19-T.Ginn MUFFS catch, and recovers at NO 28. 19-T.Ginn to NO 28 for no gain (59-D.Bond).

The Three Options

GO -1.72 EP

42% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.64 EP
58% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 71, worth -4.16 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (88 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model