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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4th & 7 at the 72

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 3 – New Orleans Saints 16

What Actually Happened

(:36) 9-B.Anger punts 47 yards to NO 25, Center-65-G.Sanborn, fair catch by 19-T.Ginn.

The Three Options

GO -1.74 EP
  • 40% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +0.78 EP
  • 60% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 72, worth -3.41 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (89 yards).

PUNT -0.72 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • New Orleans Saints would take over around their own 30, worth -0.72 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model