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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4th & 20 at the 36

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 3 – New Orleans Saints 30

What Actually Happened

(14:52) 7-P.Murray 54 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-65-G.Sanborn, Holder-9-B.Anger.

The Three Options

GO -0.31 EP
  • 21% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 16, worth +4.76 EP
  • 79% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 36, worth -1.66 EP
KICK +0.57 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 65% chance to make a 53-yard field goal: 3 points, then New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.13 EP
  • 35% chance to miss: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 46, worth -2.38 EP
PUNT +0.19 EP
  • New Orleans Saints would take over around their own 11, worth +0.19 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model