Win Probability
Confidence: <strong>strong edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.
Key Insights
- DEN offense: -0.115 EPA/play over its last 8 games (23rd in the league)
- DEN defense: -0.235 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (2nd in the league)
- QB edge to PHI: Carson Wentz (PHI) +0.096 vs Brock Osweiler (DEN) -0.096 EPA/dropback (DEN starting Brock Osweiler in place of Trevor Siemian)
- PHI offense: +0.067 EPA/play over its last 8 games (6th in the league)
- PHI defense: -0.062 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (13th in the league)
Predicted Final Score
Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.
Injury Report — Week 9
DEN
PHI
Pulled fresh for 2017 week 9 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.
Actual Result
Prediction missed by 22 pts on margin, 26 pts on total.
Scoring Summary
- Q1 10:40 FG DEN (10:40) 8-B.McManus 52 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-C.Kreiter, Holder-9-R.Dixon. DEN 3 – PHI 0
- Q1 06:40 TD PHI (6:40) (Shotgun) 11-C.Wentz pass deep right to 17-A.Jeffery for 32 yards, TOUCHDOWN. DEN 3 – PHI 6
- Q1 01:58 FG PHI (1:58) 4-J.Elliott 45 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-45-R.Lovato, Holder-8-D.Jones. DEN 3 – PHI 10
- Q1 00:59 TD PHI (:59) 11-C.Wentz pass short right to 30-C.Clement for 15 yards, TOUCHDOWN. DEN 3 – PHI 16
- Q2 11:10 FG DEN (11:10) 8-B.McManus 53 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-C.Kreiter, Holder-9-R.Dixon. DEN 6 – PHI 17
- Q2 09:21 TD PHI (9:21) (Shotgun) 11-C.Wentz pass deep left to 88-T.Burton for 27 yards, TOUCHDOWN. The Replay Official reviewed the pass completion ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands. DEN 6 – PHI 23
- Q2 03:05 FG DEN (3:05) 8-B.McManus 24 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-C.Kreiter, Holder-9-R.Dixon. DEN 9 – PHI 24
- Q2 01:28 TD PHI (1:28) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 36-J.Ajayi left end for 46 yards, TOUCHDOWN. The Replay Official reviewed the runner broke the plane ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands. DEN 9 – PHI 30
- Q3 07:37 TD PHI (7:37) (Shotgun) 30-C.Clement right end for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. DEN 9 – PHI 37
- Q3 03:05 TD PHI (3:05) 11-C.Wentz pass short right to 17-A.Jeffery for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. DEN 9 – PHI 44
- Q4 09:49 TD DEN (9:49) (Shotgun) 17-B.Osweiler pass short left to 88-D.Thomas for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. DEN 15 – PHI 44
- Q4 08:17 TD DEN (8:17) (Shotgun) 9-N.Foles sacked at PHI 19 for -8 yards (58-V.Miller). FUMBLES (58-V.Miller) [58-V.Miller], RECOVERED by DEN-54-B.Marshall at PHI 19. 54-B.Marshall for 19 yards, TOUCHDOWN. DEN 22 – PHI 44
- Q4 04:49 TD PHI (4:49) 30-C.Clement up the middle for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. DEN 23 – PHI 50
Fourth-Down Decisions
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Q1 DEN 4th & 17 at the 34Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 21% p(FG) 67%
(10:40) 8-B.McManus 52 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-C.Kreiter, Holder-9-R.Dixon.
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Q1 DEN 4th & 8 at the 90Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 38%
(4:15) 9-R.Dixon punts 48 yards to PHI 42, Center-42-C.Kreiter. 38-K.Barner to PHI 44 for 2 yards (31-J.Simmons).
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Q1 PHI 4th & 7 at the 27Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 33% p(FG) 81%
(1:58) 4-J.Elliott 45 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-45-R.Lovato, Holder-8-D.Jones.
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Q2 DEN 4th & 12 at the 73Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 30%
(14:26) 9-R.Dixon punts 55 yards to PHI 18, Center-42-C.Kreiter. 38-K.Barner to PHI 25 for 7 yards (14-C.Latimer).
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Q2 PHI 4th & 1 at the 66Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.88 EPp(convert) 70%
(12:21) 8-D.Jones punts 53 yards to DEN 13, Center-45-R.Lovato. 84-I.McKenzie to PHI 43 for 44 yards (24-C.Graham).
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Q2 DEN 4th & 2 at the 35Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.93 EPp(convert) 54% p(FG) 65%
(11:10) 8-B.McManus 53 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-C.Kreiter, Holder-9-R.Dixon.
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Q2 DEN 4th & 6 at the 6Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 32% p(FG) 98%
(3:05) 8-B.McManus 24 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-C.Kreiter, Holder-9-R.Dixon.
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Q2 DEN 4th & 18 at the 86Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 26%
(1:00) 9-R.Dixon punts 49 yards to PHI 37, Center-42-C.Kreiter. 38-K.Barner to PHI 41 for 4 yards (31-J.Simmons). PENALTY on PHI-54-K.Grugier-Hill, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 10 yards, enforced at PHI 36.
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Q2 PHI 4th & 5 at the 51Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.36 EPp(convert) 42% p(FG) 25%
(:04) (Shotgun) 11-C.Wentz pass incomplete deep right to 17-A.Jeffery.
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Q3 PHI 4th & 1 at the 3Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 62% p(FG) 98%
(8:21) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 11-C.Wentz pass short right to 13-N.Agholor to DEN 2 for 1 yard (25-C.Harris).
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Q3 DEN 4th & 7 at the 67Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 37%
(6:30) 9-R.Dixon punts 52 yards to PHI 15, Center-42-C.Kreiter. 38-K.Barner to PHI 23 for 8 yards (32-A.Janovich; 31-J.Simmons).
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Q3 PHI 4th & 14 at the 81Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 29%
(5:32) 8-D.Jones punts 55 yards to DEN 26, Center-45-R.Lovato, downed by PHI-33-D.McDougle.
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Q4 DEN 4th & 6 at the 11Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 33% p(FG) 96%
(11:14) (Shotgun) 17-B.Osweiler pass short left to 88-D.Thomas to PHI 2 for 9 yards (24-C.Graham).
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Q4 PHI 4th & 1 at the 39Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 67% p(FG) 54%
(5:34) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 9-N.Foles pass deep right to 13-N.Agholor to DEN 4 for 35 yards (25-C.Harris). Denver challenged the pass completion ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field was confirmed. (Timeout #1.)
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Q4 DEN 4th & 12 at the 87 late-gameChose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 31%
(3:02) 9-R.Dixon punts 47 yards to PHI 40, Center-42-C.Kreiter, fair catch by 38-K.Barner.
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Q4 PHI 4th & 8 at the 32 late-gameChose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +1.22 EPp(convert) 32% p(FG) 72%
(1:46) 28-W.Smallwood right end to DEN 35 for -3 yards (34-W.Parks).